Research houses put Q1 GDP growth at 4.26pc
Malaysia's economy may
have grown by as much as 4.26 per cent in the first quarter of this year, a
poll conducted by BusinessTimes shows.
The country’s gross
domestic product (GDP)performance for the first three months of 2012 will be
announced today.
A poll of 22 research houses expect the Malaysian economy to have grown by 4.26 per cent in the first quarter of 2012.
Most of them have, however, kept their outlook for 2012 and 2013 unchanged, with GDP growth averaging at 4.43 per cent and 5.16 per cent, respectively Domestic demand is likely to be growth driver for the first quarter period, helping to pick the slack from the weak external demand for Malaysian exports.
Bank Negara Malaysia governor Tan Sri Zeti Akhtar Aziz is set to release the details this afternoon.
A poll of 22 research houses expect the Malaysian economy to have grown by 4.26 per cent in the first quarter of 2012.
Most of them have, however, kept their outlook for 2012 and 2013 unchanged, with GDP growth averaging at 4.43 per cent and 5.16 per cent, respectively Domestic demand is likely to be growth driver for the first quarter period, helping to pick the slack from the weak external demand for Malaysian exports.
Bank Negara Malaysia governor Tan Sri Zeti Akhtar Aziz is set to release the details this afternoon.
|
|
OCBC economist Gundy
Cahyadi said exports growth at 4.4 per cent (year-on-year) has outperformed
expectations in the first
quarter, despite the somewhat disappointing March numbers.
“As it is, domestic demand has remained relatively constructive, especially with fiscal expenditure likely to remain robust in
the period.”
quarter, despite the somewhat disappointing March numbers.
“As it is, domestic demand has remained relatively constructive, especially with fiscal expenditure likely to remain robust in
the period.”
OCBC recently upgraded its
2012 GDP growth outlook to 4.2 per cent from 3.8 per cent previously.
“That said, plenty of risks are in the way, especially with the recent return of risk aversion likely to weigh on commodity prices - and this will directly hit Malaysia’s export earnings going forward,” Cahyadi said.
He pointed out that while there is still relatively high fiscal spending growth in the economy, this can actually be seen as a slight negative, if the private sector fails to keep up the pace.
Credit Suisse economist Santitarn Sathirathai is also forecasting the first quarter growth data to surprise significantly on the upside.
“We think the upside surprise in the first quarter is likely to be followed by a soft reading in the second quarter, reflecting weak Western world demand and possibly inventory correction.”
However, he said domestic demand should remain robust for a while longer, owing to the government’s pre-election pump-priming
measures and the initial effects of the Economic Transformation Programme.
A solid first quarter growth, Santitarn said, could not only increase the chances of general election soon but would also provide some comfort to Bank Negara from cutting the policy rate, amid growing concerns over Europe and softening external environment.
But Credit Suisse expects Bank Negara to intervene in the forex market to prevent the ringgit from outperforming its peers in the near term in an environment of strong domestic demand and soft manufacturing exports.
Tai Hui of Standard Chartered Bank remarked that market optimism early in the year about strong global growth in the first quarter now looks like misplaced euphoria.
“That said, plenty of risks are in the way, especially with the recent return of risk aversion likely to weigh on commodity prices - and this will directly hit Malaysia’s export earnings going forward,” Cahyadi said.
He pointed out that while there is still relatively high fiscal spending growth in the economy, this can actually be seen as a slight negative, if the private sector fails to keep up the pace.
Credit Suisse economist Santitarn Sathirathai is also forecasting the first quarter growth data to surprise significantly on the upside.
“We think the upside surprise in the first quarter is likely to be followed by a soft reading in the second quarter, reflecting weak Western world demand and possibly inventory correction.”
However, he said domestic demand should remain robust for a while longer, owing to the government’s pre-election pump-priming
measures and the initial effects of the Economic Transformation Programme.
A solid first quarter growth, Santitarn said, could not only increase the chances of general election soon but would also provide some comfort to Bank Negara from cutting the policy rate, amid growing concerns over Europe and softening external environment.
But Credit Suisse expects Bank Negara to intervene in the forex market to prevent the ringgit from outperforming its peers in the near term in an environment of strong domestic demand and soft manufacturing exports.
Tai Hui of Standard Chartered Bank remarked that market optimism early in the year about strong global growth in the first quarter now looks like misplaced euphoria.
"The first quarter
GDP data from Thailand and Malaysia this week should confirm our view of soft
growth in the first half of 2012, with improvement in the second half of the
year."
For Malaysia, moderating headline growth is partly the result of a strong performance in 2011, but he noted that the country's export performance has dipped, even as domestic demand is holding up well.
US investment bank Citi says that manufacturing is likely to moderate in line with industrial production which has seen its first quarter average easing to 4.4 per cent from 5.3 per cent in the fourth quarter.
"A stabilisation of the previously soft electrical and electronics production was likely to be offset by continued weakness in motor vehicle production on supply disruptions and weak demand post-credit tightening measures on November 11," said the bank.
While mining will likely be less of a drag on the economy, it expects agricultural output to be soft, dragged down by weak crude palm oil and rubber production.
Services posted a mixed performance, with a slight moderation in consumption related and domestic demand (especially consumption) is holding up well, it added.
For Malaysia, moderating headline growth is partly the result of a strong performance in 2011, but he noted that the country's export performance has dipped, even as domestic demand is holding up well.
US investment bank Citi says that manufacturing is likely to moderate in line with industrial production which has seen its first quarter average easing to 4.4 per cent from 5.3 per cent in the fourth quarter.
"A stabilisation of the previously soft electrical and electronics production was likely to be offset by continued weakness in motor vehicle production on supply disruptions and weak demand post-credit tightening measures on November 11," said the bank.
While mining will likely be less of a drag on the economy, it expects agricultural output to be soft, dragged down by weak crude palm oil and rubber production.
Services posted a mixed performance, with a slight moderation in consumption related and domestic demand (especially consumption) is holding up well, it added.
 |
Source : The News
Straits Times
Date : 23 May 2012
Today's Pick (23/05/12/088/782)
Today's Pick (23/05/12/088/782)
No comments:
Post a Comment